Last week was fun with so many games where the range between teams was 300 points or less. It was hard to find true upsets, but some people picked wisely.
Northwestern beat Michigan State for good value and then there were several 200-300 point winners. This week there are 6 games with a range greater than 300 points, but only half of those seem possible. Who can correctly pick the even line games and win the week?
Upset Specials?
Not many good choices this week.
Tennessee 700 at Auburn – Auburn is a trainwreck right now on offense (93rd OE). Their defense is 1st in the nation but it can only do so much. Morale is low. They probably will find a way to squeak this win out at home but they have to be the best upset candidate this week. Tennessee has a decent offense (30th OE) and a bad defense. This should be close, and Tennessee had an extra week to prepare.
Pitt 1050 at Notre Dame – Just because Pitt beat Syracuse does not mean they can go on the road and beat Notre Dame. The ND offense is looking so much better and their D is very good. Longshot, but what are the other options this week?
Baylor 650 at Texas – Hangover game for the Longhorns? Texas is only 51st in OE and 35th in DE. Baylor has a good offense and awful defense. Not that crazy of a gamble.
Michigan State 515 at Penn State – The Spartans revealed flaws last week that Penn State should be able to also expose. The Spartans must find some offense. A big reach here.
Road/Neutral Heavyweights
Georgia 137 at LSU – What a game this should be! The Dawgs go to the real Death Valley and luck out with a 2:30 game. You don’t win at night unless you are Bama (or Troy last year). LSU has a very good defense but Georgia is very talented. Hard to pick against the Dawgs even on the road.
WVU 141 at Iowa State – WVU is very good but this will be a road test. The Cyclones are sneaky and pretty good on defense.
UCF 149 at Memphis – UCF is very good (12 OE and 32nd DE) and we hardly ever get to see them play a decent team. Memphis has a very good offense. UCF is on a mission to go undefeated for two years.
Florida 137 at Vandy – Is this an automatic 137 points? It will be low scoring but the Gators are hot right now.
Texas A&M 177 at South Carolina – The Gamecocks found a way to beat Missouri at home last week. A&M is balanced and focused and the better team here. They can find a way to win.
Miami 142 at Virginia – Miami looked shaky last week and is once again relying on turnovers. Statistically, they are very similar to all of the defensive SEC teams. Virginia is balanced but was overmatched against NC State. Miami should be able to win.
South Florida 133 at Tulsa – Sounds like automatic points in this one. Tulsa has no offense.
Road Underdog Heavyweights
Wisconsin 345 at Michigan – Weird to see the Badgers as underdogs by this much but Michigan plays well at home. These two teams are opposites of each other. Wisconsin is 8th in OE and 55th in DE. Michigan is 25th in OE and 2nd in DE. It should be a close game.
Colorado 330 at USC – The Buffs are undefeated with a weak schedule so far. Statistically, they most resemble Virginia Tech. USC does not excel at anything and they are almost the same as Colorado, but the inverse of OE and DE. Sounds like even odds so this is a great value at 330.
Home Team Even Odds Games
Michigan 135 – Good at home, but this is a bit of a gamble for only 135 points. I think they will win but you might sweat.
Oregon 250 – Can they beat Washington at home? They lost to Stanford at home. Doubtful.
Memphis 280 – They lost to UCF last year in the AAC Championship game 62-55 in OT.
LSU 330 – Coming off a tough loss on the road last week, the Tigahs might really surprise Georgia. Good value here.
USC 137 – Is their home field advantage this strong?
South Carolina 210 – Their home field advantage is very strong.
