Last week the true upsets calmed down and we had a relatively low total for our weekly winner.
Syracuse should have beaten Clemson but did not. Are there any good upset candidates this week? True upsets are when one team is at least 300 points higher than the other, and this week does not offer many realistic opportunities. However, this week has more even matchups than any previous week! So it should be harder to get all 5 of your games correct.
Upset specials?
Northwestern 463 at Michigan State – Northwestern played really well last week, and they are much better than their 1-3 record. They have a good defense (31st DE), but their offense stinks. Michigan State is very similar to Florida, Mississippi State, and LSU statistically. This is a defensive team that can be inconsistent on offense and that is the profile of the upset victim. Losing at home to Northwestern? Maybe?
FSU 483 at Miami – Miami is starting to play better and FSU is not very good. FSU has a putrid offense, but a good defense. Miami should easily win. Leaning towards a big NO here, but you know what that has meant so far this year.
Clemson at Wake 735 – Clemson has only 1 real QB, and if he gets hurt again this might happen. Lawrence is scheduled to play and if he stays in the game Clemson will score easily and hold Wake with its defense. Longshot
Maryland 725 at Michigan – Maryland is a perplexing team. They destroyed Minnesota last week, beat Texas, but got crushed by Temple. How does that happen? Their efficiency stats are nothing spectacular. Michigan’s defense continues to keep it in games (4th in DE) and their offense has been decent. If Michigan’s offense goes cold and the good version of Maryland is playing…….a reach but the pickings are slim on upsets this week.
Road/Neutral Heavyweights
Auburn 161 at Mississippi State – First defensive touchdown wins since neither of these teams can score.
Oklahoma (neutral) 137 vs Texas – The OU offense is so difficult to stop (1st), but a familiar pattern of bad defense (62nd) is emerging. Texas is the exact opposite (80 OE) and (10 DE). This might be a fun game to watch, but OU and Kyler Murray have a talent advantage until next year.
LSU 161 at Florida – These two teams are almost identical statistically. Mediocre offense and very good defenses. Can LSU win in the Swamp? Yes
Clemson 110 at Wake – Trevor Lawrence and the offense will find their rhythm.
Notre Dame 149 at Virginia Tech – Notre Dame is playing well with stats similar to LSU. What can we make of Virginia Tech? They followed the loss to ODU by clobbering undefeated Duke. If we take away the anomalous ODU game, V Tech is pretty good. A lot of uncertainty here.
Home Team Even Odds Games
N.C. State 155 – The Wolfpack are a balanced team playing at home against B.C. – N.C. State is better.
Texas A&M 143 – The Aggies are 6 point favorites at home over the number 13 team in the country. Why? Kentucky has the 3rd most efficient defense (69 OE) in the country and so far this year they have beaten other defensive teams (UF, Miss State, South Carolina). Texas A&M has an offense, and in that stadium, I can understand why they are favored.
Colorado 173 – The Buffs are undefeated but who have they played? They are statistically most similar to B.C. and Virginia. Arizona State is right behind them statistically. At altitude, Colorado is a better choice.
Mississippi State 245 – More Cowbell!
Florida 245 – Will the Swamp beat LSU?
Stanford 148 – Utah has a very good defense and a terrible offense. Stanford should be able to win by a touchdown.
Virginia Tech – Lane Stadium with a ranked opponent. The Hokies have new life.
