Purdue gave the season some intrigue last week. There were a few mild upsets but other major upsets went quiet.
Will this week get crazy? The potential major upsets this week look improbable, but with a bunch of PAC 12 games who knows?
Upset Specials > 300 point difference
Navy (1500) at Notre Dame: If this was a vintage Navy team, I would like the odds better. Navy’s defense is terrible but their offense is good. Notre Dame has a very good defense but their 41st ranked OE is not worthy of being a playoff team. They will get destroyed again if they make the playoff. Navy needs some magic to win this one.
Baylor (545) at West Virginia: Both teams are offensive. Baylor and WVU should score some points but do you expect Baylor to outscore WVU on the road? Sometimes weird things happen in Thursday night games, but that is usually when a favorite goes on the road.
Kansas State at FSU (700): As we saw last week, Clemson has suddenly turned into a beast! They have a history of flipping a switch and it is lights out for everybody not named Bama. FSU does not have enough offense to threaten Clemson. If Clemson abuses FSU’s good defense it is yet another warning sign.
Oregon at Arizona (390): Oregon is a much better team than Arizona. Khalil Tate may not play again for Arizona, and they are not using his amazing rushing skills properly anyway.
Washington at CAL (465): Washington is stout. CAL is also, so expect a low scoring game. Washington has managed to choke away two close games already this year. Washington most likely wins, but it might be ugly.
Utah at UCLA (420): UCLA has looked better the last three weeks and they are at home. Utah is the classic defensive team that might be ripe for an upset on the road. Utah has also looked good the last three weeks including a 19 point road win over Stanford.
Georgia (136) vs Florida (335) neutral: This should be an entertaining game. UGA has a history of laying an egg against the Gators and these Gators are getting more confident each week. The UF offense has improved dramatically in the past three weeks with the D slipping slightly. I think UF will hold a lead in a close game and UGA will be forced to go with Justin Fields for the win.
Wisconsin (140) at Northwestern: Wisconsin will score against Northwestern. Does Northwestern have enough punch to pull an upset? They barely beat Rutgers last week.
Even Odds Battles
Iowa (300) at Penn State (142): Is this too much credit for the home team? Iowa is a real pain to play against. Penn State has not looked good in its last three games and has Michigan and Wisconsin after Iowa. The Hawkeyes are a good gamble here for 300.
Kentucky (330) at Missouri (137): Kentucky has a nasty defense but their offense is getting worse Missouri has a good offense that torched Memphis last week. These two teams seem even so Kentucky at 330 is a value.
Texas (163) at Oklahoma State (240): Texas is overrated. Oklahoma State is confusing and inconsistent. Both teams had a bye week to get ready. It is hard to ever recommend an inconsistent team.
Washington State (235) at Stanford (165): The Cougars are hot, but Stanford is getting healthy again and is favored.
Texas A&M (230) at Mississippi State (167): A&M has been consistent and is one of the most improved teams. They had an extra week to prepare and rest while State is limping home from Baton Rouge. Texas A&M is good against the run so I like the value of 230 here.
South Florida (360) at Houston (132): USF has looked bad for two weeks now. Houston has been the opposite.