Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

Guess how many double digit favorites outright lost last week?  I lost count.  Auburn became the first top 10 team ever to lead by 20 and then lose to an unranked team.  Top 10 teams were 182-0 in that scenario.  It was a weekend full of upsets, but not much changed with us.  The coin went 8-7, I went 8-7, Sagarin went 7-8.  It is difficult to forecast nagging midseason injuries and other intangibles that might influence outcomes.  

After browsing the lines, I do not see many tasty meals this week.  Does my confidence have a statistically significant negative correlation with my success?  I don’t think so, but you can laugh at me if this week goes well.  Therefore, it is a week to consult the sagarin lines first and try to find the largest cushions between the sagarin predictions and the vegas lines and then maybe find a few places where we disagree.  Gotta pick 15

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

All hail the mighty coin!  The home team is heads.  The coin went 9-4-2.  If you just took the home team in every game last week you would have been 5-8-2.  Clearly the coin knew better.  I went 8-5-2 and so did Sagarin.  Auburn letting off the gas after comfortably being ahead created 1 push and Fresno vs SJSU was the other.  Let’s see if we can beat the coin this week.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

The range of randomness provided by coin flipping should be between 9-6 and 6-9 ( 60 – 40 %).  Last week I was 8-7, and Sagarin was 7-8.  I chose a different set of 15 games for comparison and the results were the same.  The statistical approach is not working as well as it has in years past. Odds say that will eventually smooth out and we should get a positive outlier.  In fact, look at some of the Sagarin predictions compared to the Vegas lines this week.  I will also include coin flips this week.  Heads is the home team

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

Last week was awful 5-9-1.  It started well and most of the night games looked good for a half until the dam broke.  This week has to be better.  I will also use the Sagarin predictions this week to provide added context and see if my rationale is validated.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

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Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

Last week was interesting but not very successful at 7-7-1.  Vegas lines were accurate with many half point hooks at 7.5 or 14.5 snagging people.  Let’s see if 3 weeks of data starts to answer more questions, but after perusing the available lines I do not see a lot of meat on the bones for this week.

Stats from Football Outsiders S&P

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

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