Not many games but high on QUALITY. This has been a more chaotic year than normal and 2007 is the best comparison when 2 loss LSU won the national title. Everybody has weaknesses.
Vegas favorite is coin heads for neutral site games
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
Rivalry week is here! Last week was ok (15-10 including other games) and the misses were primarily swing games where the spread was within 3 points. How did South Alabama lose by 52 points to winless Georgia Southern?
Counting the other games not discussed, I was in the mid 60s for a percentage against the spread last week. That is still not great but not bad. Home teams dominated the big games and that home trend has continued. When in doubt, take the home team.
This week is a big letdown after last week. Not a lot of exciting games and many FCS opponents the week before a big game on the 25th. Some of those FCS lines are interesting though. With a huge game on the horizon, why run up the score on FCS U?
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
The coin dominated again and Sagarin had its worst week yet. I was in between but still subpar. The Bad from last week: Lane Kiffin purposefully took a safety to prevent an FAU cover. Arkansas looked terrible and barely won. The Good from last week: Florida was predictably dead, Army got up to play Air Force, UAB continued their surge, UMASS continued to play teams close but lose. The rest of the games were all scores within the range of foreseeable outcomes that could have gone either way without much spread cushion. I am glad I did not include that Iowa game! Iowa at Kinnick is possessed.
Let’s see if we can find a semi-reliable cast of characters in a week full of big games. I did all of the big games this week even if I did not like the line.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil
Statistical methods are simply not working well this year. Occasionally there is an NCAA basketball tournament where the stats are not as reliable, but football tends to become more predictable as the season progresses. Not this year!
The HOME team is 19-10 against the spread the last 2 weeks providing at least some pattern. Bryce Love did not play for Stanford and that was not announced until right before kickoff so that prediction was irrelevant. Ohio State dominated Penn State but gave up 200 return yards, a return td, and played stupidly with penalties and had some bad luck. Eventually the statistically superior Buckeyes won, but it was too late to cover. Fresno surged up into the top 40 only to lose to UNLV as 21 point favorites?? It was the second week in a row where several 7-21 point underdogs not only covered but won outright. The inconsistency of non power 5 games has been comical, so this week will be influenced more by power 5 conference teams.
This week, less statistical reliance and more hunches.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
