All posts by sarahd

NCAAF Picks and Parlays 🏈 Week 12

Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

Counting the other games not discussed, I was in the mid 60s for a percentage against the spread last week.  That is still not great but not bad.  Home teams dominated the big games and that home trend has continued.  When in doubt, take the home team.

This week is a big letdown after last week. Not a lot of exciting games and many FCS opponents the week before a big game on the 25th.  Some of those FCS lines are interesting though.  With a huge game on the horizon, why run up the score on FCS U?     

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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Week 11 of NCAA Football- Game predictions

Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

The coin dominated again and Sagarin had its worst week yet.  I was in between but still subpar.  The Bad from last week:  Lane Kiffin purposefully took a safety to prevent an FAU cover.  Arkansas looked terrible and barely won.  The Good from last week:  Florida was predictably dead, Army got up to play Air Force, UAB continued their surge, UMASS continued to play teams close but lose.  The rest of the games were all scores within the range of foreseeable outcomes that could have gone either way without much spread cushion.  I am glad I did not include that Iowa game!  Iowa at Kinnick is possessed.

 

Let’s see if we can find a semi-reliable cast of characters in a week full of big games.  I did all of the big games this week even if I did not like the line.      

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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Week 10 NCAA Football- Picks and Predictions

Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

Statistical methods are simply not working well this year.  Occasionally there is an NCAA basketball tournament where the stats are not as reliable, but football tends to become more predictable as the season progresses.  Not this year!  

The HOME team is 19-10 against the spread the last 2 weeks providing at least some pattern.  Bryce Love did not play for Stanford and that was not announced until right before kickoff so that prediction was irrelevant.  Ohio State dominated Penn State but gave up 200 return yards, a return td, and played stupidly with penalties and had some bad luck.  Eventually the statistically superior Buckeyes won, but it was too late to cover.  Fresno surged up into the top 40 only to lose to UNLV as 21 point favorites??  It was the second week in a row where several 7-21 point underdogs not only covered but won outright.  The inconsistency of non power 5 games has been comical, so this week will be influenced more by power 5 conference teams.

This week, less statistical reliance and more hunches.       

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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Week 9 NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

I was not confident last week and I only saw a handful of games that I liked.  It was embarrassing.  At least I suspected I was in for a miserable Saturday.  I went 6-11 counting the 2 big games.  Sagarin went 7-8 again.  The COIN went 10-5!  Randomness reigns supreme in mid season.  Many favorites outright lost last week so it was a good day to hit positive moneylines on the underdogs.

I feel a little more confident this week, but there are not 15 games that I like.  Heavy on road teams this week

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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NCAA Football: Week Eight 🏈 Picks and Predictions

Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

Guess how many double digit favorites outright lost last week?  I lost count.  Auburn became the first top 10 team ever to lead by 20 and then lose to an unranked team.  Top 10 teams were 182-0 in that scenario.  It was a weekend full of upsets, but not much changed with us.  The coin went 8-7, I went 8-7, Sagarin went 7-8.  It is difficult to forecast nagging midseason injuries and other intangibles that might influence outcomes.  

After browsing the lines, I do not see many tasty meals this week.  Does my confidence have a statistically significant negative correlation with my success?  I don’t think so, but you can laugh at me if this week goes well.  Therefore, it is a week to consult the sagarin lines first and try to find the largest cushions between the sagarin predictions and the vegas lines and then maybe find a few places where we disagree.  Gotta pick 15

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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Week 7 NCCA Football: Picks and Predictions

Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

All hail the mighty coin!  The home team is heads.  The coin went 9-4-2.  If you just took the home team in every game last week you would have been 5-8-2.  Clearly the coin knew better.  I went 8-5-2 and so did Sagarin.  Auburn letting off the gas after comfortably being ahead created 1 push and Fresno vs SJSU was the other.  Let’s see if we can beat the coin this week.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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Week 6 NCAA Football: Picks and Predictions by Dr. Senkbeil

Last Week in Review By Dr. Senkbeil

The range of randomness provided by coin flipping should be between 9-6 and 6-9 ( 60 – 40 %).  Last week I was 8-7, and Sagarin was 7-8.  I chose a different set of 15 games for comparison and the results were the same.  The statistical approach is not working as well as it has in years past. Odds say that will eventually smooth out and we should get a positive outlier.  In fact, look at some of the Sagarin predictions compared to the Vegas lines this week.  I will also include coin flips this week.  Heads is the home team

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

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